Genetic variation at the 9p21 locus predicts angiographic coronary artery disease prevalence but not extent and has clinical utility
Article Outline
- Abstract
- Methods
- Results
- Patient characteristics
- SNP distributions and cross correlations
- Univariate predictive ability for angiographic CAD in the initial association set
- Multivariable risk prediction, subset analysis, and population attributable risk
- Association of haplotypes of the 4 SNPs with CAD
- Replication and combined sets analyses
- Association of 9p21 with extent of angiographic disease
- Inflammatory marker associations
- Impact on Framingham risk assessment
- Discussion
- Conclusions
- Acknowledgment
- Appendix A. Supplementary data
- References
- Copyright
Background
Variants at the 9p21 locus have been associated with coronary heart disease, but their precise disease phenotype and utility for clinical risk assessment are uncertain.
Methods
Consenting patients with early-onset angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) (n = 1,011) were compared with matched subjects (n = 545) free of angiographic disease and with a random population sample (n = 565). Cases and controls were genotyped for 4 variants, and ORs for angio-CAD were determined. Findings were validated in a separate set of cases and controls (n = 1,452).
Results
Alleles were highly correlated (r2 ≥ 0.9), and all predicted angio-CAD compared with both control groups. Genotype at rs2383206 (minor allele frequency 45.9%), the most predictive (P < .0001), was associated with an adjusted odds ratio for angio-CAD of 1.39 (95% CI, 1.05–1.85) for heterozygote and 1.73 (1.26–2.37) for homozygote risk-allele carriers and explained 21% of population attributable risk and was independent of traditional risk factors and myocardial infarction. For the comparison of combined cases versus combined control samples (N = 3,573), CAD was predicted by high-risk allele homozygosity at P = 9 × 10−8. Despite this, extent of disease was not increased. Applied to patients with intermediate Framingham risk scores, 9p21 genotyping modified risk classification in 24%.
Conclusions
Variants at the 9p21 locus robustly predict angiographic CAD prevalence, independent of standard risk factors, but not CAD extent or myocardial infarction; provide pathophysiological insights; and may be clinically useful in refining coronary heart disease risk classification.
Cardiovascular disease has emerged as the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide.1, 2 Although environmental factors account for much of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk,3 marked interindividual susceptibility suggests a major contribution of genetics.4, 5, 6, 7, 8 However, the genetic underpinnings remain largely unknown.9, 10 Efforts focusing on variants (polymorphisms) in candidate genes have met with only modest success and frequent failures of replication.8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
The development and recent application of high-density genotyping arrays to genome-wide scanning has opened up a new era in the discovery of the genetic basis for common, complex diseases such as CHD.16, 17 Using genome-wide scanning, several groups within the past year have reported associations of CHD with a locus on chromosome 9p21.3.18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 The locus is located outside of annotated genes.19, 20, 23 Moreover, its precise clinical phenotype (e.g., CAD onset vs severity of atherosclerosis19, 20, 24), its relation to other CHD risk factors,9, 10 and its incremental value in clinical risk assessments, remain to be resolved. Accordingly, we undertook an initial assessment and validation of variants in a large and prospectively collected, angiographically defined cohort of cases and complementary control groups and assessed impact on CHD risk assessment.
Methods
Objectives
The primary study objectives were (1) to prospectively assess the association of four 9p21 variants in patients with early-onset, angiographically defined CAD compared with (a) matched angiographically healthy subjects and with (b) a random population sample; (2) to validate the initial findings in a separate set of cases and controls; (3) to assess the association of the 9p21 variants with 8 traditional and 2 novel (inflammatory) risk factors and with CAD distinct from myocardial infarction (MI); (4) to assess impact of 9p21 sequence variation on extent of CAD; and (5) to explore the impact of 9p21 genotyping on individual Framingham risk assessment.
Angiographic study population
Angiographic cases and controls were selected from among patients ≥18 years undergoing coronary angiography within the Intermountain Healthcare LDS Hospital (Salt Lake City, UT), who gave written, informed consent to participate in the cardiac catheterization registry of the Intermountain Heart Collaborative Study, which included a fasting blood draw for DNA and plasma samples. The study protocols were approved by the LDS Hospital's institutional review board.
The initial association sample comprised years 1994 to 2003, and the replication sample, 2003 to 2007. Early-onset CAD cases and controls were selected 2:1 by matching for sex, age and nearest date of entry into the registry. Early-onset disease was defined as angiographic CAD at ≤55 years of age in men and ≤65 years in women in the initial association set. Because of changing disease demographics, the definition was modified in the replication set to ≤60 years in men and ≤70 years in women.
Population-based controls
A population-based control sample was assembled by invitation (letters and follow-up telephone calls) to a randomly generated sample of subjects in the Utah Population Database. Responders were scheduled for a clinic appointment where they completed a health-related questionnaire, had vital signs taken, and donated blood for study-related testing.
Assessment of angiographic CAD
The presence of angiographic CAD was determined by blinded coronary angiographic analysis. Patients were categorized as free of CAD, moderate CAD (ie, most severe lesion 10%-69% stenosis), or severe CAD (ie, at least one lesion of >70% stenosis). Patients with moderate CAD were excluded as indeterminate. Extent of disease was assessed by counting the number of major vessels with severe disease and by calculating the Duke CAD Index.26
Clinical information
Demographic, health history, and vital signs at entry were obtained from physician and hospital records and stored in a computer database using previously described criteria.27
Lipid measurements
Serum total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were measured on fasting blood samples drawn at study entry using dry-slide technology on a VITROS 950 analyzer (Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Rochester, NY). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was measured using VITROS HDL-C Magnetic Reagent. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was calculated.
Inflammatory markers
High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) concentration was determined in a sample subset using an immunoturbidimetric assay on the Hitachi 917 analyzer (Roche Diagnostics, Indianapolis, IN) using reagents and calibrators from Denka Seiken (Niigata, Japan). Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (LpPLA2) was measured in a sample subset by DiaDexus (San Francisco, CA) using the PLAC test (www.plactest.com).
Genotyping
Genotyping of rs2383206, rs2383207, rs10757274, and rs10757278 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 9p21 was performed with 5′ exonuclease (Taqman) chemistry on the ABI Prism 7000 (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA).
Study hypotheses
The primary hypothesis was that ≥1 of the 4 9p21 allelic variants would predict an altered risk of angiographic CAD compared with (1) angiographic controls and (2) population-based controls. A corollary hypothesis was that the initial association(s) would be validated in the replication set of cases and controls. Secondary hypotheses were that the association with CAD would be independent of traditional risk factors and would predict extent of disease. A tertiary hypothesis was that 9p21 would modify individual Framingham risk assessment in the control group at intermediate (10%-20% per 10 years) primary CHD risk.28
Statistical considerations
The primary statistical comparison was between the initial angiographic case and angiographic control set. Assuming an additive effect model, a minor allele frequency of 0.45, and a per-allele effect size of 20%, a sample consisting of 1000 cases and 500 controls yields a power of >99% at an α of .001.
Evaluation of continuous variables by genotype was performed by Student t test or analysis of variance (triglyceride and hsCRP levels were log-transformed). Differences in CAD prevalence were evaluated for each SNP by the χ2 test. Correlations used Pearson's test. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression provided adjusted ORs and 95% CI, with forced entry of covariables for multivariable testing. Covariables were age; sex; and 6 other CHD risk factors, i.e., hyperlipidemia, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, family history, and body mass index (BMI). Adjustment was made in other models for total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and ethnicity. Finally, adjustment was made for hsCRP and LpPLA2 in subgroups with marker values. Framingham risk assessment was made using published, sex-specific nomograms.28
Population attributable risk was calculated from the formula: 100D / (1 + D), where D is equal to P1 (RR1 − 1) = P2 (RR2 − 1), where P1 and P2 are the frequencies of the at-risk genotypes, and RR1 and RR2 are their associated relative risks, as compared with the low-risk genotype.
Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS (v.13.0, SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL). HapMC (personal communication, N.J.C.) was used to estimate haplotypes and perform permutation analysis.29 Two-tailed P values for the primary comparison were considered provisionally significant at P ≤ .04, based on the high correlation (r2 ≥ 0.9) of the 4 variant SNPs, and definitive for P ≤ .0125, based on a conservative Bonferroni correction for the comparisons of the 4 SNPs with CAD.
Results
Patient characteristics
Characteristics of the initial association set of cases and controls are summarized in Table I. As expected, traditional risk factors were more prevalent in cases than either control group. Lipid profile and blood pressure were more favorable in population controls, whereas they were more similar in angiographic controls compared to cases. Levels of hsCRP and LpPLA2 were higher in cases.
Table I. Characteristics of initial association sets of angiographic cases and controls
| Characteristic | Angiographic CAD Cases | Angiographic healthy subjects | Population healthy subjects |
|---|---|---|---|
| n | 1011 | 545 | 565 |
| Age (y) (mean [SD]) | 51.1 (7.4)‡ | 51.3 (7.5) | 53.3 (15.8) |
| Sex (% male) | 64.0§ | 65.5§ | 41.9 |
| Ethnicity (% white) | 86 | 85 | 95 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 30.1 (6.4)§ | 30.6 (6.9)§ | 27.3 (5.3) |
| H/o Hyperlipidemia (%) | 67.5†, § | 34.1 | 37.3 |
| H/o Hypertension (%) | 57.0†, § | 44.6§ | 27.2 |
| H/o Smoking (%) | 33.7†, § | 13.7 | 12.5 |
| H/o Diabetes (%) | 23.4†, § | 10.8 | 7.4 |
| Family history CHD | 48.6† | 32.1 | — |
| Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) | 138 (24)§ | 138 (22)§ | 130 (19) |
| Diastolic blood pressure (mm Hg) | 82 (13)§ | 82 (14)§ | 76 (11) |
| Total cholesterol (mg/dL) | 191 (55)⁎ | 189 (49) | 183 (39) |
| Triglyceride (mg/dL) | 194 (174) | 175 (148)§ | 128 (77) |
| LDL-C (mg/dL) | 109 (43) | 108 (41) | 111 (34) |
| HDL-C (mg/dL) | 45 (32)⁎, § | 52 (33) | 50 (14) |
| hsCRP (mg/L) | 2.0 (1.9)† | 1.4 (1.1) | — |
| LpPLA2 (ng/mL) | 422 (212) | 335 (161) | — |
⁎P<.01. |
†P<.001 vs angiographic healthy subjects. |
‡P<.01. |
§P<.001 vs population healthy subjects. |
SNP distributions and cross correlations
Allelic frequencies and representative genotypes in the initial case and control sample sets are shown in Table II. Genotype distributions were in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium. All variants were highly prevalent, with control population minor (high-risk) allele frequencies >45%. Distributions differed between cases and each control group but not between the 2 control groups. The 4 SNPs were highly correlated with each other, (r2 ≥ 0.9; Supplemental Table A, available online) but did not correlate with standard CHD risk factors (Supplemental Table B, available online). Based on this linkage group analysis, rs2383206 was selected as the tagging SNP for the set of 4 9p21 SNPs in subsequent analyses. ln-LpPLA2 but not ln-hsCRP correlated weakly with rs2383206.
Table II. Allelic and genotypic frequencies by CAD diagnosis
| Variable | Angiographic CAD cases | Angiographic healthy subjects | Population healthy subjects |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frequency, rs2383206 allele (n [%]) | 1114/2022†, ‡ (55.1%) | 531/1090 (48.7%) | 549/1132 (48.4%) |
| Frequency, rs2383207 allele (n [%]) | 1117/2000⁎, ‡ (55.9%) | 541/1084 (49.8%) | 561/1138 (49.3%) |
| Frequency, rs10757278 allele (n [%]) | 1023/1980⁎, ‡ (51.7%) | 498/1074 (46.4%) | 4898/1078 (45.4%) |
| Frequency, rs10757274 allele (n [%]) | 1030/1998⁎, ‡ (51.6%) | 509/1088 (46.8%) | 511/1132 (45.1%) |
| rs2383206 genotype (n [%]) | 1000 (100%)† | 542 (100%) | 569 (100%) |
| 201 (20.1%) | 141 (26.0%) | 141 (24.8%) | |
| 481 (48.1%) | 261 (48.2%) | 295 (51.8%) | |
| 318 (31.8%) | 140 (25.8%) | 133 (23.4%) | |
| rs2383207 genotype (n [%]) | 1011 (100%)⁎ | 545 (100%) | 566 (100%) |
| 209 (20.7%) | 148 (27.2%) | 144 (25.4%) | |
| 490 (48.5%) | 263 (48.3%) | 295 (52.1%) | |
| 312 (30.9%) | 134 (24.6%) | 127 (22.4%) |
⁎P<.01. |
†P<.001 vs angiographic healthy subjects. |
‡P<.001 vs population healthy subjects. |
Univariate predictive ability for angiographic CAD in the initial association set
All 4 alleles predicted CAD when compared to sex-/age-matched angiographic controls, to population controls, and to the combined control group (P = .012-.0008 vs angiographic controls; P = .001-<.0001 vs population and all controls) (Table III). Rs2383206, the tagging SNP, was most highly predictive, with an OR for CAD per high-risk allele compared to the combined control groups of 1.29 (1.15-1.46) (P = .000028). Results were most consistent with an additive model.
Table III. Predictive ability of 9p21 SNPs for angiographic CAD in the initial association sets
| SNP | Heterozygote OR (95% CI) | High-risk homozygote OR (95% CI) | Allele OR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angio CAD vs angio controls | |||
| 1.32 (1.02-1.69) | 1.52 (1.13-2.03) | 1.23 (1.07-1.43) | |
| 1.28 (0.99-1.64) | 1.47 (1.10-1.97) | 1.21 (1.05-1.41) | |
| 1.30 (1.0-1.69) | 1.61 (1.20-2.16) | 1.27 (1.10-1.47) | |
| 1.33 (1.03-1.72) | 1.67 (1.25-2.24) | 1.29 (1.12-1.50) | |
| 1.39 (1.05-1.85) | 1.73 (1.26-2.37) | 1.31 (1.12-1.54) | |
| Angio CAD vs population controls | |||
| 1.13 (0.89-1.49) | 1.69 (1.25-2.28) | 1.29 (1.11-1.49) | |
| 1.20 (0.94-1.54) | 1.70 (1.26-2.29) | 1.29 (1.12-1.50) | |
| 1.15 (0.89-1.49) | 1.67 (1.24-2.25) | 1.30 (1.12-1.51) | |
| 1.14 (0.89-1.48) | 1.69 (1.26-2.28) | 1.30 (1.13-1.51) | |
| 1.17 (0.86-1.58) | 1.64 (1.16-2.32) | ||
| Angio CAD vs combined controls | |||
| 1.22 (0.99-1.50) | 1.60 (1.25-2.03) | 1.26 (1.11-1.42) | |
| 1.24 (1.01-1.52) | 1.56 (1.23-2.00) | 1.25 (1.11-1.41) | |
| 1.22 (0.98-1.52) | 1.64 (1.28-2.09) | 1.28 (1.14-1.45) | |
| 1.23 (0.99-1.52) | 1.67 (1.31-2.13) | 1.29 (1.15-1.46) | |
| 1.26 (0.99-1.61) | 1.74 (1.33-2.28) |
In contrast, allelic frequencies of the 4 SNPs were similar in the 2 control populations (P = .44-.92, linear-by-linear associations), indicating a lack of differential selection bias despite somewhat differing risk profiles (Table I), and CAD risk prediction was similar using either control group.
Multivariable risk prediction, subset analysis, and population attributable risk
The association of the 9p21 SNPs with CAD was undiminished by adjusting for multiple standard CHD risk factors. Results for rs2383206 are shown in Table III.
Predictive ability for CAD was generally consistent in risk factor subsets of interest (Supplemental Table C, available online). Apparent trends by family history, age, and sex disappeared when retested in the replication set (adjusted P-interaction = .30, .33, .66, respectively, for the combined initial and replication sets).
A multivariable model for CAD combining rs2383206 with standard risk factors for the initial angiographic association cohort is shown in Table IV. A highly significant contribution of rs2383206 was noted (P = .003), placing it ahead of BMI, family history, and hypertension in power and behind hyperlipidemia, smoking, and diabetes for these age- and sex-matched cohorts.
Table IV. Multivariable predictive model for CAD of rs2383206 and standard risk factors in the initial angiographic association set
| Variable | B | SE | Wald χ2 | df | Significance | OR (CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rs2383206 | 11.51 | 2 | 0.003 | |||
| rs2383206 (1) | 0.332 | 0.144 | 5.31 | 1 | 0.021 | 1.39 (1.05-1.85) |
| rs2383206 (2) | 0.546 | 0.162 | 11.36 | 1 | 0.001 | 1.73 (1.26-2.37) |
| Hyperlipidemia | 1.158 | 0.124 | 87.84 | 1 | 0.000 | 3.18 (2.50-4.06) |
| Smoker | 0.782 | 0.139 | 31.47 | 1 | 0.000 | 2.19 (1.66-2.89) |
| Diabetes | 0.854 | 0.170 | 25.10 | 1 | 0.000 | 2.35 (1.68-3.28) |
| BMI | -0.029 | 9.802 | 9.80 | 1 | 0.002 | 0.97 (0.96-0.99) |
| Family history | 0.374 | 0.122 | 9.37 | 1 | 0.002 | 1.45 (1.14-1.85) |
| Hypertension | 0.101 | 0.124 | 0.66 | 1 | 0.417 | 1.11 (0.87-1.41) |
| Constant | 0.043 | 0.300 | 0.021 | 1 | 0.885 | 1.04 |
The population attributable risk of rs2383206, based on frequencies of the at-risk genotypes and their multivariable adjusted relative risks (Table III), was estimated to be 21%.
Association of haplotypes of the 4 SNPs with CAD
Haplotypes were estimated using our previously generated and validated expectation-maximization algorithm based on 100 000 simulations.29 Results for the initial CAD set compared to the 2 control groups combined are shown in Supplemental Table B, available online. The most common variant (high-risk) haplotype, GGGG, showed a strong association with CAD compared to the common (wild-type, low-risk) comparator, AAAA, with OR = 1.29 (1.14-1.46), P-empirical = .00004.
Replication and combined sets analyses
An equally sized, independent and temporally consecutive series of cases and controls was selected for validation testing and genotyped for rs2383206. By design, age was slightly older in cases and controls (55.4 years; SD, 7.8 years), whereas sex distribution (62.4% men) was similar to the initial (discovery) set. As with the discovery population, CAD was predicted by the high-risk variant when compared to sex-/age-matched angiographic controls, to population controls, and to the combined control group (Figure 1). When all replication and initial discovery sets of cases and controls were combined (total N = 3573), odds ratios for the rs2383206 heterozygote of 1.28 (1.09-1.51) (P = .003) and for the high-risk homozygote of 1.66 (1.38-2.00) (P = 9 × 10−8) were obtained.

Figure 1.
Predictive ability of rs238206 for angiographic CAD in the replication and combined association sets. A, Heterozygous patients. B, Homozygous patients. *Multivariable analysis could not be completed because of incomplete risk data in the population control set. Angio, Angiographic.
Association of 9p21 with extent of angiographic disease
Despite the highly significant predictive ability of 9p21 for the presence of angiographic CAD, the extent of CAD was not significantly impacted by 9p21 genotype, either when assessed by number of vessels severely diseased or by the Duke CAD Index26 (Table V).
Table V. Extent of CAD by rs2383206 genotype
| Severely diseased vessels | Low-risk homozygote (n [%] within genotype) | Heterozygote (n [%] within genotype) | High-risk homozygote (n [%] within genotype) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 167 (47.7%) | 438 (50.8%) | 253 (46.3%) |
| 2 | 100 (28.6%) | 245 (28.5%) | 150 (27.5%) |
| 3 | 83 (23.7%) | 180 (20.9%) | 143 (26.2%) |
| P = .31 | |||
| CAD Index26 Mean (SD) | 44.7 (16.7) | 43.8 (17.5) | 45.4 (18.2) |
| P = .42 |
Inflammatory marker associations
9p21 SNPs were not associated with hsCRP, but homozygotes showed a modest association with increased LpPLA2 levels (ie, median 330 ng/mL in rs2383206 minor allele noncarriers vs 397 ng/mL in homozygote carriers, P = .04, ln-transformed analysis) (Supplemental Table B, available online).
Impact on Framingham risk assessment
Novel risk factors (eg, hsCRP), including genetic factors, are recommended as most appropriately applied in subjects in the Adult Treatment Panel III intermediate risk category,28 ie, with a calculated 10-year Framingham risk of 10% to 20%.30 Among the 565 population-based control subjects (our true primary CHD risk cohort), 21% (n = 116) were at intermediate risk. Of these, 24% (n = 28) were reclassified into high-risk (>20%, n = 15) or low-risk (<10%, n = 13) by adding 9p21 genotype to risk assessment (Figure 2) (we assumed the 9p21 rs2383206 heterozygote to represent the population average or referent subject, the high-risk homozygote to increment risk by 30%, and the low-risk homozygote to decrement risk by 30%).

Figure 2.
Reclassification of intermediate risk subjects by addition of 9p21 genotype to Framingham risk assessment. y-Axis represents numbers of subjects in population based sample in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories before and after addition of 9p21 rs2383206 genotype to risk assessment. See text for details. FRS, Framingham risk score.
Discussion
Summary of key results
This large study, representing a total of 3573 cases and controls, prospectively assessed and validated the value of highly correlated genetic sequence variants at 9p21.3 to predict the specific CHD phenotype of angiographic CAD in a geographically distinct, primarily Caucasian population. The study demonstrated several levels of internal consistency and was statistically robust: a precise phenotype for cases and controls was established angiographically; findings among the 4 highly linked SNPs were consistent; predictive ability was shown in comparison to each of 2 independent and distinctively selected control groups; and results were replicated in a separate, similarly selected set of cases and controls. Associations with CAD were similar whether single SNPs or a combined haplotype was considered. Thorough clinical and biomarker characterization of the sample sets allowed the strikingly independent nature of the risk association (with respect to traditional coronary risk factors) to be demonstrated. Angiographic CAD association was independent of MI history. At a population level, 9p21 variation explained an important proportion (21%) of attributable CAD risk. At an individual level, knowledge of 9p21 genotype reclassified 1 quarter of subjects at intermediate CHD risk. In external comparisons, the study shows major consistency with several other recent reports while addressing outstanding questions and inconsistencies among these reports. Despite this, extent of disease was not increased in high-risk allele carriers, a novel observation with pathophysiological implications.
Literature comparisons
Using genome-wide scanning, at least 7 reports within the past year, representing at least 20 distinct population samples, have reported associations of CHD with a locus on chromosome 9p21.3.18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31 Of multiple tested SNPs within a 13- to 100-kb region, 4 previously well-studied SNPs were prospectively selected for validation and clinical utility testing.19, 20, 23, 24, 25 The current study provides complementary and incremental information to these reports.
First, the need for validation of in multiple diverse populations is emphasized by past problems of replication.8, 11, 12, 13, 14 Our results for allelic and haplotypic distributions, risk associations, and attributable risk are strikingly consistent with and complementary to these other reports.
Second, this study refines the CHD phenotype to angiographically defined CAD. Other studies have included a spectrum of phenotypes, including a spectrum of clinical CHD phenotypes,19, 21, 22, 23 MI,20, 21 coronary artery calcification,19 or angiographic CAD plus history of MI.24, 25 Similarly, there has been a diversity of controls. The present result establishes an association of 9p21 with anatomic CAD per se, which is equally well distinguished from angiographic healthy subjects and from a random population sample.
Previous work has suggested independence from traditional risk factors with varying characterization; here, we demonstrate a striking independence based on both qualitative and quantitative assessment (ie, for lipids/lipoproteins, blood pressure, weight, inflammatory biomarkers). Our data also firmly support utility of the universally common 9p21 variants independent of family history—a controversial issue until now.21, 22, 25 In addition, we show that genotyping can provide incremental value to Framingham risk score for clinical CHD risk assessment in a sizable proportion (1 quarter) of subjects at intermediate (ie, ambiguous) pretest risk.
Mechanistic considerations
The genetic/molecular basis of 9p21 genetic variation on CHD risk is unknown. The 9p21.3 locus is located outside of annotated genes. A role for CDKN2A and CDKN2B, which play an important role in regulation of the cell cycle and lie in relatively close proximity,21 appears to be excluded by resequencing studies of McPherson et al.19 Subsequently, Broadbent et al.23 reported that the 9p21 high-risk haplotype collocates with a large antisense noncoding RNA gene, which is expressed in tissues and cell types affected by atherosclerosis and which might act as an important growth-regulatory element.
By refining the clinical phenotype to initiation of angiographic CAD, this study provides mechanistic insight, i.e., the risk association appears to involve an initiator/promoter mechanism of atherosclerosis.8 A major potentiator role is excluded by the similar angiographic severity scores between risk-allele carriers and noncarriers. It will now be of interest to prospectively test whether it affects incident MI apart from angiographic CAD (ie, prospective comparison of CAD cases which do vs do not suffer incident MI during follow-up). A modest inflammatory element is possible for LpPLA2, but not hsCRP. Finally, our data favor an additive genetic model.31
Clinical implications
For clinical application, a risk marker should be firmly validated; be of sufficient magnitude to be of value; be independent of and incremental to standard risk factors; and provide valuable prognostic, diagnostic, and/or therapeutic information. 9p21 is now established as a CHD risk-associated genetic marker31; its risk magnitude appears to be similar to that of other recently approved and applied novel markers, that is, hsCRP30 and LpPLA2,32 contributing importantly to population attributable risk; it shows independence from traditional risk factors; and we show that it may refine the Framingham risk category in intermediate risk subjects. These properties commend it for testing as a novel CHD risk marker.
Limitations
The problems inherent to all observational studies, e.g. selection bias, population stratification, and statistical issues, should be considered in reviewing these results. However, the prospective hypothesis; the precise matching by age, sex, and time; the relatively large sample size; the replication design; and the internal and external consistency strongly suggest the overall results to be valid. Assessing the impact of risk reclassification on clinical outcomes will require prospective clinical studies.33 Our results do not address the outstanding question of predictive ability in populations of African descent.19
Conclusions
In this large, angiographically defined case-control study, variants at the 9p21 locus were found to robustly predict CAD prevalence independent of standard risk factors, extent of disease, and MI. Taken together, these results suggest a specific role for 9p21 in atherosclerosis initiation/promotion. Finally, 9p21 genotyping appears to be useful in refining risk classification in those at intermediate risk and deserves prospective clinical testing as a novel risk marker.
We thank Lisa Cannon-Albright, PhD, Paul Hopkins, MD, MPH, and Donald L. Lappé, MD, for scientific, clinical, administrative, and laboratory assistance.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplemental Table A. Correlations among the four 9p21 SNPs
| SNP | rs10757278 | rs10757274 | rs2383206 | rs2383207 |
| rs10757278 | 1 | 0.929 | 0.908 | 0.885 |
| rs10757274 | 0.929 | 1 | 0.930 | 0.912 |
| rs2383206 | 0.908 | 0.930 | 1 | 0.973 |
| rs2383207 | 0.885 | 0.912 | 0.973 | 1 |
Supplemental Table B. Correlations of standard risk factors, hsCRP, and LpPLA2 with rs2383206
| Risk factor | Pearson χ2* or analysis of variance F† | P |
|---|---|---|
| H/o Hyperlipidemia | 0.68* | .71 |
| H/o Hypertension | 2.39* | .30 |
| H/o Smoking | 3.63* | .16 |
| H/o Diabetes | 1.60* | .45 |
| Family history CHD | 2.65* | .27 |
| Sex | 2.03* | .36 |
| Age | 0.62† | .54 |
| BMI | 0.33† | .72 |
| Total Cholesterol | 0.19† | .82 |
| ln_Triglyceride | 0.07† | .93 |
| LDL-C | 0.09† | .92 |
| HDL-C | 0.23† | .79 |
| ln_hsCRP | 0.60† | .55 |
| ln_LpPLA2 | 3.23† | .04 |
Supplemental Table C. Predictive ability of rs2383206 for CAD in population risk factor subsets of interest
| Grouping variable | Subset | OR univariate (95% CI) | P-interaction univariate | P-interaction multivariate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All subjects | 1.30 (1.15-1.46) | – | ||
| Age | ≤51 | 1.47 (1.19-1.80) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| >51 | 1.12 (0.91-1.38) | |||
| Sex | Male | 1.37 (1.14-1.64) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| Female | 1.14 (0.89-1.45) | |||
| H/o Hypertension | Present | 1.40 (1.13-1.73) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| Absent | 1.22 (1.00-1.50) | |||
| H/o Hyperlipidemia | Present | 1.29 (1.03-1.62) | 0.93 | 0.98 |
| Absent | 1.31 (1.06-1.62) | |||
| H/o Smoking | Present | 1.33 (0.97-1.81) | 0.80 | 0.66 |
| Absent | 1.27 (1.07-1.51) | |||
| H/o Diabetes | Present | 1.61 (1.06-2.44) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| Absent | 1.27 (1.08-1.49) | |||
| Family history | Present | 0.99 (0.78-1.27) | 0.012 | 0.06 |
| Absent | 1.48 (1.23-1.78) | |||
| BMI | ≤Median | 1.21 (0.98-1.51) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| >Median | 1.36 (1.11-1.66) |
Supplemental Table D. Association analysis of haplotypes of the 4 SNPs with CAD
| Haplotype | Frequency (%) | OR | (95% CI) | P-empirical† |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAAA | 47.1 | 1.0⁎ | – | – |
| GGGG | 47.1 | 1.29 | (1.14-1.46) | 0.00004 |
| AGGA | 1.7 | 1.59 | (0.99-2.53) | 0.054 |
| GGGA | 1.6 | 1.34 | (0.81-2.21) | 0.24 |
| AGGG | 1.3 | 1.31 | (0.75-2.29) | 0.33 |
| Rare | <1% each (total, 1.2%) | 0.90 | (0.50-1.63) | 0.72 |
⁎AAAA is comparator haplotype. |
†HapMC using 100,000 simulations. |
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The study was funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL071878) (both in Bethesda, MD), and the Deseret Foundation, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT.
This content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute or the National Institutes of Health.
PII: S0002-8703(08)00616-9
doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2008.07.006
© 2008 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
