American Heart Journal
Volume 154, Issue 1 , Pages 87-93 , July 2007

Validity of the Framingham point scores in the elderly: Results from the Rotterdam study

  • Michael T. Koller, MD, MSc

      Affiliations

    • Basel Institute for Clinical Epidemiology, Basel, Switzerland
    • Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
    • Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
    • Corresponding Author InformationReprint requests: Michael Koller, MD, MSc, Basel Institute for Clinical Epidemiology, University Hospital Basel, Petersgraben 4CH-4031 Basel, Switzerland.
  • ,
  • Ewout W. Steyerberg, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
  • ,
  • Marcel Wolbers, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Basel Institute for Clinical Epidemiology, Basel, Switzerland
  • ,
  • Theo Stijnen, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
  • ,
  • Heiner C. Bucher, MD, MPH

      Affiliations

    • Basel Institute for Clinical Epidemiology, Basel, Switzerland
  • ,
  • M.G. Myriam Hunink, MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
    • Department of Radiology, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
    • Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA
  • ,
  • Jacqueline C.M. Witteman, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Received 25 November 2006 ,Accepted 15 March 2007.

References 

  1. National Cholesterol Education Program . Third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) expert panel on detection, evaluation, and treatment of high blood cholesterol in adults (Adult Treatment Panel III) final report. Circulation. 2002;106:3143–3421
  2. Anderson KM, Wilson PW, Odell PM, et al. An updated coronary risk profile. A statement for health professionals. Circulation. 1991;83:356–362
  3. Wilson PW, D'Agostino RB, Levy D, et al. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories. Circulation. 1998;97:1837–1847
  4. Brindle P, Emberson J, Lampe F, et al. Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk score in British men: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2003;327:1267
  5. Menotti A, Puddu PE, Lanti M. Comparison of the Framingham risk function-based coronary chart with risk function from an Italian population study. Eur Heart J. 2000;21:365–370
  6. Hense HW, Schulte H, Lowel H, et al. Framingham risk function overestimates risk of coronary heart disease in men and women from Germany—results from the MONICA Augsburg and the PROCAM cohorts. Eur Heart J. 2003;24:937–945
  7. Unal B, Critchley JA, Capewell S. Modelling the decline in coronary heart disease deaths in England and Wales, 1981-2000: comparing contributions from primary prevention and secondary prevention. BMJ. 2005;331:614
  8. Hunink MG, Goldman L, Tosteson AN, et al. The recent decline in mortality from coronary heart disease, 1980-1990. The effect of secular trends in risk factors and treatment. JAMA. 1997;277:535–542
  9. Grundy SM, Cleeman JI, Merz CN, et al. Implications of recent clinical trials for the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Circulation. 2004;110:227–239
  10. Shepherd J, Blauw GJ, Murphy MB, et al. Pravastatin in elderly individuals at risk of vascular disease (PROSPER): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2002;360:1623–1630
  11. Sever PS, Dahlof B, Poulter NR, et al. Prevention of coronary and stroke events with atorvastatin in hypertensive patients who have average or lower-than-average cholesterol concentrations, in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial–Lipid Lowering Arm (ASCOT-LLA): a multicentre randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2003;361:1149–1158
  12. Andrawes WF, Bussy C, Belmin J. Prevention of cardiovascular events in elderly people. Drugs Aging. 2005;22:859–876
  13. Dornbrook-Lavender KA, Roth MT, Pieper JA. Secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in the elderly. Ann Pharmacother. 2003;37:1867–1876
  14. Hofman A, Grobbee DE, de Jong PT, et al. Determinants of disease and disability in the elderly: the Rotterdam Elderly Study. Eur J Epidemiol. 1991;7:403–422
  15. Harrell FE. Regression modeling strategies with application to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag; 2001;
  16. Graf E, Schmoor C, Sauerbrei W, et al. Assessment and comparison of prognostic classification schemes for survival data. Stat Med. 1999;18:2529–2545
  17. Altman DG, Royston P. What do we mean by validating a prognostic model?. Stat Med. 2000;19:453–473
  18. Van Buuren S, Oudshoorn CGM. Multivariate imputation by chained equations. MICE V1.0 user's manual, TNO Prevention and Health, Leiden, The Netherlands. http://web.inet.nl.edu/users/S.van/Buuren/mi/html/mice.hmtl2000;
  19. Little RJA, Rubin DB. Statistical analysis with missing data. New York, NY: John Wiley; 1987;
  20. Schafer JL. Analysis of incomplete multivariate data. New York: Chapman & Hall; 1997;
  21. R Development Core Team . R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Development Core Team; 2006;
  22. Clark TG, Altman DG, De Stavola BL. Quantification of the completeness of follow-up. Lancet. 2002;359:1309–1310
  23. Thomsen TF, McGee D, Davidsen M, et al. A cross-validation of risk scores for coronary heart disease mortality based on data from the Glostrup Population Studies and Framingham Heart Study. Int J Epidemiol. 2002;31:817–822
  24. Marrugat J, D'Agostino R, Sullivan L, et al. An adaptation of the Framingham coronary heart disease risk function to European Mediterranean areas. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2003;57:634–638
  25. Empana JP, Ducimetiere P, Arveiler D, et al. Are the Framingham and PROCAM coronary heart disease risk functions applicable to different European populations? The PRIME Study. Eur Heart J. 2003;24:1903–1911
  26. Stone NJ, Bilek S, Rosenbaum S. Recent National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III update: adjustments and options. Am J Cardiol. 2005;96:53E–59E
  27. Psaty BM, Furberg CD, Kuller LH, et al. Traditional risk factors and subclinical disease measures as predictors of first myocardial infarction in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study. Arch Intern Med. 1999;159:1339–1347
  28. Law MR, Wald NJ, Thompson SG. By how much and how quickly does reduction in serum cholesterol concentration lower risk of ischaemic heart disease?. BMJ. 1994;308:367–372
  29. Vliegenthart R, Oudkerk M, Hofman A, et al. Coronary calcification improves cardiovascular risk prediction in the elderly. Circulation. 2005;112:572–577
  30. Jackson R. Updated New Zealand cardiovascular disease risk-benefit prediction guide. BMJ. 2000;320:709–710
  31. Jackson R. Guidelines on preventing cardiovascular disease in clinical practice. BMJ. 2000;320:659–661
  32. Hense HW. Observations, predictions and decisions—assessing cardiovascular risk assessment. Int J Epidemiol. 2004;33:235–239
  33. Assmann G, Benecke H, Neiss A, et al. Gap between guidelines and practice: attainment of treatment targets in patients with primary hypercholesterolemia starting statin therapy. Results of the 4E-Registry (Efficacy Calculation and Measurement of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events including Physicians' Experience and Evaluation). Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2006;13:776–783
  34. Fornengo P, Bruno G, De Salvia A, et al. Low adherence of general practitioners to National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines for the management of hyperlipidaemia. Diabetes Nutr Metab. 2000;13:263–268
  35. De Backer G, Ambrosioni E, Borch-Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: third joint task force of European and other societies on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (constituted by representatives of eight societies and by invited experts). Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2003;10:S1–S10

PII: S0002-8703(07)00244-X

doi: 10.1016/j.ahj.2007.03.022

American Heart Journal
Volume 154, Issue 1 , Pages 87-93 , July 2007