Direct thrombin inhibitors in acute coronary syndromes and during percutaneous coronary intervention: Design of a meta-analysis based on individual patient data☆☆☆★
Article Outline
- Abstract
- Theoretic basis for the use of direct thrombin inhibitors in acute coronary syndrome and during percutaneous coronary intervention
- Limitations of published data
- Objectives
- Methods
- Organizational structure
- Appendix
- References
- Copyright
Abstract
Background More than 30 randomized trials involving more than 40,000 patients with acute coronary syndrome and undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention have evaluated the efficacy and safety of direct thrombin inhibitors relative to unfractionated heparin. However, few trials have been large enough to provide reliable estimates of treatment effects on major cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore uncertainty remains regarding the benefits of direct thrombin inhibitors on major cardiovascular outcomes such as death or myocardial infarction and the balance of any such benefits against the risk of major bleeding. Objectives By combining data on individual patients from all the major studies, we sought to obtain reliable estimates of the treatment effects of direct thrombin inhibitors on death, myocardial infarction, major bleeding, and secondary outcomes including refractory or recurrent ischemia and need for revascularization. We examined these outcomes at the completion of active treatment and during long-term follow-up, as well as in clinically important subgroups. Methods Individual patient data, including baseline demographics, previous history of vascular disease, conventional vascular risk factors, qualifying diagnosis, prognostic markers including biochemical markers of extent of myocardial injury, cointerventions, and fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular outcomes, have been obtained from 14 randomized studies, constituting more than 95% of the available randomized evidence. These data will undergo exhaustive data checking for completeness and consistency and will then be merged into a master database for analysis. Analyses will undergo extensive scrutiny by trialists of the direct thrombin inhibitor studies before incorporation into a manuscript. (Am Heart J 2001;141:e2.)
The use of statistical methods to combine results of individual trials addressing the same or similar questions can provide more reliable estimates of the treatment effects of an intervention than those derived from individual studies. This approach is increasingly used as a basis for decision making in clinical medicine. However, meta-analyses that rely solely on data extracted from published reports may give estimates of treatment effects that are not confirmed subsequently when all of the relevant evidence is analyzed.1, 2
An alternative method for combining the results of clinical trials is a meta-analysis based on individual patient data. This approach, which has been described as the “yardstick” against which all systematic reviews should be measured,1, 3 has a number of important benefits compared with meta-analyses based on published aggregate data.1 These include the ability to obtain more complete outcome data for all patients, perform detailed checking of the data and ensure the quality of randomization and follow-up, perform survival and other time-to-event analyses that may lead to improvement in the reliability of the estimated treatment effect, and undertake analyses in clinically important subgroups to explore potential differences in treatment effects.
Theoretic basis for the use of direct thrombin inhibitors in acute coronary syndrome and during percutaneous coronary intervention
Thrombin plays a central role in the initiation and propagation of occlusive intravascular thrombus, and therapies aimed at inhibiting thrombin generation and activity are widely used for the prevention and treatment of arterial thrombosis.4 The major goal of antithrombotic therapy is to prevent the development and propagation of thrombi, control symptoms of ischemia, and prevent further complications of acute coronary syndromes including myocardial infarction and death. Unfractionated heparin and low-molecular-weight heparin exert their antithrombotic action primarily by antithrombin III-mediated inhibition of thrombin and factor Xa and are effective therapies for the management of acute coronary syndromes.5 However, an important limitation of both unfractionated heparin and low-molecular-weight heparin is their inability to inhibit fibrin-bound thrombin, which represents a potent prothrombotic reservoir and provides a potent ongoing stimulus for local thrombus growth.
Direct thrombin inhibitors, of which hirudin and bivalirudin are the most widely studied, are able to inactivate both free and fibrin-bound thrombin and have the potential to block thrombin activity.6 However, unlike unfractionated heparin and low-molecular-weight heparin, direct thrombin inhibitors are unable to inhibit coagulation enzymes that are more proximal in the clotting pathway (such as factor Xa). In vitro and in vivo studies suggest that direct thrombin inhibitors are more potent antithrombotic agents than unfractionated heparin and are more effective in preventing platelet deposition and thrombus growth on deep wall injury at both low- and high-shear rate conditions.7 However, direct thrombin inhibitors have been associated with a higher risk of bleeding in some experimental models.8
Limitations of published data
To date, more than 30 randomized trials involving more than 40,000 patients have evaluated the efficacy and safety of direct thrombin inhibitors in patients with acute coronary syndrome with ST elevation, without ST elevation, or undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions,9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41 and several additional trials are currently in progress.42, 43 The results of several studies suggest that direct thrombin inhibitors are superior to unfractionated heparin for the prevention of death or myocardial infarction in patients with acute coronary syndromes, but others have failed to demonstrate a significant treatment benefit. A preliminary meta-analysis of the 3 largest hirudin trials indicates that hirudin is superior to unfractionated heparin for the prevention of death or myocardial infarction at the completion of intravenous therapy (odds ratio [OR] 0.78, P = .0004).32 The aggregate data from trials in which bivalirudin was compared with unfractionated heparin show nonsignificant 25% risk reduction at 7 days or during hospitalization with bivalirudin (OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-1.05, P = .09).44 Bivalirudin appeared to have a lower risk of major bleeding (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.32-0.52, P < .001).
Although these data regarding the use of direct thrombin inhibitors in acute coronary syndromes are promising, they have not been sufficient to alter clinical practice. However, these data also have several limitations. First, the key composite clinical outcome of death or myocardial infarction has not been reported in all the trials. Second, when available, the outcome of death or myocardial infarction is reported at different time points in different studies. Lack of data from all the studies at the completion of active therapy may be “masking” a true treatment benefit of direct thrombin inhibitors and limits the power of conventional meta-analysis to detect a moderate yet clinically important treatment benefit (for example a 10% or 20% risk reduction). Third, the ability to explore subgroups with use of published data is limited, and it remains unclear whether there may be subgroups of high-risk patients in whom there may be a more favorable risk/benefit ratio with the use of direct thrombin inhibitors.
To further explore the efficacy and safety of direct thrombin inhibitors relative to unfractionated heparin in acute coronary syndrome and during percutaneous coronary intervention, and in high-risk subgroups, individual patient data from each of the major trials are being obtained. This approach will allow a comparison of the efficacy and safety of direct thrombin inhibitors and unfractionated heparin for the key composite outcome of death or myocardial infarction from all the studies. Effects on these outcomes can be examined at consistent time points including the completion of active therapy and during long-term follow-up, on the basis of use of time-to-event data, in subgroups of individual classes of direct thrombin inhibitors including hirudin, semisynthetic hirudin analogs and low-molecular-weight direct thrombin inhibitors, and among important prognostic subgroups of patients.
Objectives
Primary objectives
The primary objectives of this meta-analysis are to address the following questions: (1) What are the best estimates of the overall effects of direct thrombin inhibitors compared with unfractionated heparin at the completion of treatment for the prevention of death or myocardial infarction? (2) Are the absolute treatment benefits of direct thrombin inhibitors at the completion of treatment maintained during longer-term follow-up at 30 days and at 6 months? (3) What are the risks of major, life-threatening, and intracranial bleeding during hospitalization associated with direct thrombin inhibitors compared with unfractionated heparin? (4) What are the proportional and absolute treatment benefits of the direct thrombin inhibitors in key subgroups of patients according to treatment indication (acute coronary syndrome with ST elevation, acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation, percutaneous coronary intervention), cointervention with thrombolytic therapy, propensity to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention, and treatment allocation (hirudin, bivalirudin, low-molecular-weight direct thrombin inhibitors)?
Secondary objectives
Secondary analyses will examine the consistency of the data in clinically important subgroups of patients and will address the following issues: (1) the proportional and absolute clinical benefits of the direct thrombin inhibitors on secondary outcomes (eg, stroke, recurrent ischemia, need for cardiac catheterization, need for revascularization), (2) the proportional and absolute clinical benefits of the direct thrombin inhibitors on major nonfatal vascular events and vascular death in subgroups on the basis of dose intensity (presence or absence of bolus dose, rate of initial infusion, target activated partial thromboplastin time), duration of therapy, prerandomization patient characteristics (age, sex, diabetes), and baseline clinical features (heart rate, blood pressure, electrocardiographic changes, myocardial infarction at enrollment, creatine kinase, or troponin) at enrollment, (3) evidence of clinical rebound of events during the first 48 to 72 hours after cessation of direct thrombin inhibitor therapy, and (4) risks of major bleeding stratified by prerandomization baseline patient characteristics, baseline clinical features, direct thrombin inhibitor agent, dose intensity, and cointerventions.
Methods
Selection of trials
Collaboration has been established among coordinators of both published and unpublished, unconfounded, properly randomized trials (1) involving patients with acute coronary syndrome with or without ST elevation or patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, in which (2) a direct thrombin inhibitor is compared with unfractionated heparin, and where (3) data on key irreversible outcomes including death and myocardial infarction have been recorded. Trials have only been included if randomization was performed in a manner that precluded knowledge of the next treatment (for example, trials where allocation is alternate were not included), and where 1 treatment group differed from another only by the treatments of interest (ie, unconfounded trials).
Potentially eligible trials were identified by formal computer-aided searches (Medline database, EMBASE, Cochrane database of clinical trials), by scrutiny of the reference lists of trials and review articles, abstracts, meeting proceedings, and trial registries, and by inquiry of other investigators and the manufacturers of thrombin inhibitors. Individual patient data have only been requested from the larger randomized trials, involving at least 200 patients and at least 100 patients in the control arm. (See Table I for a list of included studies.) All trials meeting these criteria have been included in the meta-analysis.
Table I. Randomized trials comparing a direct thrombin inhibitor versus unfractionated heparin for which individual patient data has been obtained
| Study | Design | Eligibility | No. | Experimental | Control | Primary outcome | Timing of primary outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARGAMI-2 (1998) | Phase II double-blind | ACS with ST elevation; tPA or SK | 1201 | Argatroban (low or high dose) | UFH | Death, MI, stroke, pump failure, or intervention for ischemia | 30 d |
| GUSTO-2A (1994) | Phase III double-blind | ACS with or without ST elevation; SK or tPA | 2564 | Hirudin 3-5 d | UFH 3-5 d | Death or MI | 30 d |
| GUSTO-2B (1996) | Phase III double-blind | ACS with or without ST elevation; SK or tPA | 12142 | Hirudin 3-5 d | UFH 3-5 d | Death or MI | 30 d |
| HELVETICA (1995) | Phase III double-blind | USA with CAD and planned PCI | 1154 | Hirudin 24 h, then hirudin or placebo 72 h | UFH 24 h, then placebo 72 h | Death, MI, CABG, bailout, or repeat PCI | 30 wk |
| HERO-1 (1997) | Phase II double-blind | ACS with ST elevation; SK | 412 | Bivalirudin 72 h | UFH 72 h | Angiographic patency | 90-120 min |
| Hirulog Angioplasty Study (1995) | Phase III double-blind | ACS scheduled for urgent PCI | 4312 | Bivalirudin 24 h | UFH 24 h | Death, MI, vessel closure, ABP, urgent revascularization | In-hospital |
| HIT-3 (1994) | Phase III double-blind | ACS plus tPA | 302 | Hirudin 48-72 h | UFH 48-72 h | Death or in-hospital MI | 30 d |
| HIT-4 (1999) | Phase III double-blind | ACS with ST elevation; SK | 1208 | Hirudin 5-7 d | UFH 5-7 d | Angiographic patency | 90 min |
| Klootwijk et al (1999) | Phase II single-blind* | USA | 300 | Efegatran 48 h | UFH 48 h | ECG evidence of ischemia | 48 h |
| OASIS-1 (1997) | Phase II open-label | ACS without ST elevation | 909 | Hirudin 72 h | UFH 72 h | CV death, MI, or refractory angina | 7 d |
| OASIS-2 (1999) | Phase III double-blind | ACS without ST elevation | 10141 | Hirudin 72 h | UFH 72 h | CV death or MI | 7 d |
| TIMI-9A (1994) | Phase III double-blind | ACS plus ST elevation; tPA or SK | 757 | Hirudin 96 h | UFH 96 h | Death, MI, CCF, shock, or LVEF <40% | 30 d |
| TIMI-9B (1996) | Phase III double-blind | ACS plus ST elevation; tPA or SK | 3002 | Hirudin 96 h | UFH 96 h | Death, MI, CCF, shock, or LVEF <40% | 30 d |
| TRIM (1997) | Phase II double-blind | ACS without ST elevation | 1209 | Inogatran 72 h | UFH 72 h | Death, MI, refractory or recurrent angina | 7 d |
| *This trial was conducted in two phases: dose finding and randomized. | |||||||
Justification for restricting individual patient data collection to the larger studies
There are several important reasons for concentrating efforts on obtaining individual patient data from the larger trials: (1) Large trials are less subject to publication bias. (2) Large trials have enrolled the majority (95%) of patients and therefore the amount of data missed by not including the smaller trials is limited. (3) Restricting the data requests to larger trials decreases the amount of work involved in central data collection and handling. (4) The larger studies usually have ongoing data management and computing support, allowing the data to be more readily converted into the format required by the systematic overview.
Outcomes
The effects of the direct thrombin inhibitors are being assessed in terms of their effects on major vascular events: nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, recurrent ischemia, need for revascularization, cardiovascular death, all deaths, and major, life-threatening, and intracranial bleeding. Transient ischemic attacks of the eye or brain will not be counted as outcomes.
Wherever possible, causes of death are being subdivided into “nonvascular” and “vascular” (that is, definitely or probably vascular). Vascular death includes all deaths attributed to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, thromboembolic, hemorrhagic, other vascular, or unknown vascular causes.
Although there are differences among the studies in the definitions of vascular outcomes and major bleeding, the original definitions will be retained because retrospective reclassification of events may lead to bias. Exploratory analyses may, however, be carried out where outcomes can be redefined to make a definition consistent across trials.
Data collection and management
Individual patient dataFrom trials involving at least 200 patients overall as well as at least 100 controls, a few key details of trial design are being requested (Table II).
Table II. Summary trial design
| 10. If no, please provide duration (days) of follow-up for individual outcomes (new myocardial infarction, stroke, recurrent angina, revascularization, bleeding). |
Individual patient data are being obtained regarding baseline entry characteristics, the allocated treatments, dates of randomization, dates of scheduled and actual end of treatment, dates of last follow-up, and dates of outcome event(s). A list of key variables being collected for each patient is included in Table III.
Table III. Summary of individual patient data collection
| Baseline data |
| Prerandomization data |
| Randomization data |
| Postrandomization data |
Data are being transferred in electronic format (floppy disk, data tapes, or direct electronic transfer). For each study, consistency and completeness checks will be carried out, followed by preliminary analyses to ensure agreement with the main published result. Discrepancies in any of these steps are being resolved through direct contact with the data management personnel of the trials. The complete set of information on each trial will be referred to the investigator for confirmation. Only once this process has been satisfactorily completed will the primary data analysis be performed.
Statistical analysis
The fundamental assumptions that underlie a systematic review of many trials are not statistical but medical. The first is that moderate mortality differences (in the order of 10%-20%) are clinically important and worthwhile. A second is that although the same types of treatment would probably not produce exactly the same size of therapeutic effect in different circumstances it would tend to produce effects that point in the same direction.
In our analysis, treatment effects will be compared with control only within one trial to avoid completely any direct comparison of patients in one trial with patients in another. Therefore differences in patient characteristics among the trials from which data are being combined do not matter as long as the patients are broadly similar (for example, they all have a diagnosis of unstable coronary artery disease and are expected to benefit from antithrombin therapy). There may still be wide variability in the event rates in the control group among the trials because of differences in the type of patients enrolled in the study; however, the stratified approach of only comparing events and patients within a trial compares only like with like and is not affected by differences in patient characteristics among the trials.
Outcome data from the different trials will be combined by use of the Peto-Yusuf modification of the Mantel-Haenszel method.45 This method entails calculating the observed (number of events in the treatment group) minus the expected (average number of events for treatment and control groups) events and determining the variance for each. Grand totals are calculated for each, and the ratio of the two is used to estimate the OR. The OR and its 95% CI are calculated for each trial. Trials will be also examined for statistical evidence of heterogeneity. The chi-square tests for heterogeneity will be approximated by summing the N separate chisquare test statistics (O – E2/V) for each trial and subtracting the overall chi-square value (GT2/SIV) from this, using N – 1 degrees of freedom.
It is recognized that other statistical methods are commonly used to combine data from individual trials (eg, the DerSimonian and Laird method), but we propose, in the first instance, to use the modification of the Mantel-Haenszel method because of its simplicity, widespread acceptance, and lack of other assumptions (other than that the effects of a treatment in different trials are likely to be in the same direction). Secondary analyses will, however, compare results obtained with the modified Mantel-Haenszel method with results obtained with a random effects model. In addition, time-to-event analyses will be performed with a Cox proportional hazards model with adjustment with use of Cox regression.
Proposed analyses
Each of these analyses will be performed unadjusted as well as adjusted for key baseline variables, and in key subgroups according to treatment allocation and qualifying diagnosis: (1) proportion of death or myocardial infarction, death, myocardial infarction, recurrent ischemia, and revascularization at completion of active treatment, at 7 days, 30 days, and 6 months; (2) time to event analysis for death or myocardial infarction, death, myocardial infarction, recurrent ischemia, and revascularization up to 6 months; (3) proportion of death or myocardial infarction, death, myocardial infarction, recurrent ischemia, and revascularization during the 72-hour period after cessation of active therapy and between the end of 72 hours after cessation and 6 months; (4) proportion of death or myocardial infarction, death, myocardial infarction, recurrent ischemia, and revascularization during active treatment in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention compared and in those not undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, in patients receiving thrombolytic therapy (and by lytic agent), and those not receiving thrombolytic therapy; (5) proportion of death or myocardial infarction, death, myocardial infarction, recurrent ischemia, and revascularization in subgroups of patients according to baseline patient and clinical characteristics (age, sex, diabetes, creatine kinase, or troponin rise, electrocardiogram changes, dose intensity); (6) proportion of major, life-threatening, and fatal bleeding during treatment or within 24 hours of cessation of antithrombotic therapy and during subsequent follow-up and in the presence or absence of a concomitant surgical or other invasive procedure; and (7) proportion of major bleeding, minor bleeding, and patients requiring transfusion by baseline patient and clinical characteristics (age, sex, diabetes, creatine kinase, or troponin rise, electrocardiogram changes, treatment doses).
Subgroup analyses
Many different subgroups will be performed and presented and, among these, the play of chance alone is likely to yield misleading tests of significance. Therefore the effects of treatment among specific categories of patient or of trial may best be assessed indirectly by approximate extrapolation from the apparent effects of treatment among all patients in a wide class of trials.
Organizational structure
Coordination
The Canadian Cardiovascular Collaboration and Duke Clinical Research Institute are jointly coordinating this project. A management committee representing the collaborating investigators and the coordinating centers oversees the conduct of this project. The study secretariat is based at the Canadian Cardiovascular Collaboration, but data tapes are being shared between the 2 coordinating centers, with both Duke and the Canadian Cardiovascular Collaboration maintaining an overall database across all conditions.
Confidentiality and publication policy
All data will be held securely and will remain confidential. The results of all analyses will be presented to investigators for scrutiny and comments. All reports will be published in the name of collaborating trialists and will be circulated to collaborators for comments and approval before submission. A list of collaborators is provided in the Appendix. The results of primary analyses are expected to be available by the end of 2000.
Appendix
Coordinating Centers: Canadian Cardiovascular Collaboration and Duke Clinical Research Institute Study Chairs: S. Yusuf, C. Granger Project Officers: J. W. Eikelboom, D. Kong Members: S. Mehta, J. Pogue, P. Tait Direct Thrombin Inhibitor Trialists Argatroban Compared With Heparin in Myocardial Infarction Treated With rt-PA (ARGAMI)-2: S. Behar, M. Benderly, H. Hod, E. Kaplinsky Aventis: N. Barrett, R. Bilke, M. Luz, M. Marhoefer, L. Roi Cardialysis: H. Boersma Clinical Trials and Evaluation Unit, London: M. Flather Clinical Trial Service Unit, Oxford: C. Baigent Efegatran Study: M. L. Simoons Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries (GUSTO)-II: R. Califf, C. Granger, K. Pieper, E. J. Topol Research Centre, Hamilton Health Sciences Corporation: J. Weitz Hirudin in a European Restenosis Prevention Trial Versus Heparin Treatment in PTCA Patients (HELVETICA): P. W. Serruys Hirulog Early Reperfusion/Occlusion (HERO)-1: H. D. White Hirulog Angioplasty Study: J. A. Bittl Hirudin for the Improvement of Thrombolysis (HIT)-3 and 4: K. L. Neuhaus, U. Zeymer National Health and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Centre: J. Simes Novartis: P. Close, S. Edwards, P. Gallo, M. Henis Organization to Assess Strategies for Ischemic Syndromes (OASIS)-1 and 2: S. Anand, S. Yusuf Quintiles: W. Kimball The Medicines Company: G. C. Cupit, C. Meanwell, J. Villiger Thrombolysis and Thrombin Inhibition in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI)-9A and 9B: E. M. Antman, M. Gibson, S. Murphy Thrombin Inhibition in Myocardial Ischemia (TRIM): L. Grip, P. Held
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☆ Supported by a grant from Hoechst Marion Roussel but designed, conducted, interpreted, and submitted for publication independently of the sponsor.
☆☆ Reprint requests: Salim Yusuf, MD, Preventive Cardiology and Therapeutics Program, McMaster University, HGH—McMaster Clinic, 237 Barton St E, Hamilton, Ontario L8L 2X2, Canada. E-mail: yusufs@fhs.csu.mcmaster.ca
★ *A complete list of participants appears in the Appendix.
PII: S0002-8703(01)63952-8
doi:10.1067/mhj.2001.111954
© 2001 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
